Trading Guide
Trading on MemeMarket is a game of skill, probability, and speed. Learn how to maximize your edge.
Basic Strategies
Trend Following
The trend is your friend. If a memecoin is viral on Twitter and volume is exploding, betting YES on price targets often pays off. Look for "breakout" markets where the probability hasn't caught up to the hype yet.
The "Fade" (Contrarian)
Memecoins crash as fast as they rise. If a token has pumped 500% in an hour, betting NO on further unrealistic targets can be highly profitable. You are essentially shorting the hype.
Advanced Strategies
Arbitrage
Sometimes, the implied probability on MemeMarket diverges from other data sources.
Token X is trading at $0.05 on Raydium.
MemeMarket "Will Token X > $0.04" shares are trading at $0.80.
Since the price is ALREADY above the target, the probability should be near 100% ($1.00) as expiration nears. Buying at $0.80 offers a theoretical 25% arbitrage return.
Hedging
If you hold a large bag of $WIF, you can use MemeMarket to hedge your downside risk.
Strategy: Buy "NO" shares on a $WIF price target market. If $WIF crashes, your portfolio value drops, but your MemeMarket prediction pays out, offsetting the loss. It's like buying insurance for your memecoins.
Understanding Odds & Implied Probability
The price of a share is the market's consensus probability.
- Price $0.10 = 10% chance. Extremely risky, but pays 10x (1000%) if you win.
- Price $0.50 = 50% chance. A coin flip. Pays 2x (100%).
- Price $0.90 = 90% chance. "Sure thing". Pays 1.11x (11%). Low risk, low reward.
Successful traders look for Mispriced Odds. If you think an event has a 80% chance of happening, but shares are trading at $0.60, that is a +EV (Positive Expected Value) trade.
Risk Management
Don't get rekt. Follow these golden rules:
Prediction markets are volatile. A 99% probability can turn to 0% in seconds in crypto.
Don't put your entire bankroll on one prediction. Spread your bets across different coins and timeframes.